South Asia Terrorism Portal

Sindh: Relative Calm
Tushar Ranjan Mohanty
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

A Policeman, identified as Rehman Bangash, was killed by unidentified assailants outside his residence in the Pehlwan Goth area of Gulistan-e-Johar in Gulshan Town, Karachi, the provincial capital of Sindh, on February 5, 2020.

Two Policemen were killed and another four persons were injured in a targeted shootout in Saddar Town, Karachi, on January 7, 2020. City Police Officer (CPO) Mohammad Ahsan Younas stated, on January 8, “The shooter who was killed during yesterday’s encounter with the police was affiliated with the Jamaat-ul-Ahrar group and some evidence available with the police also suggests that he was trained in Afghanistan.”

According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), Sindh registered a record low of 25 fatalities, including 15 civilians, five Security Force (SF) personnel and five militants, through 2019. There were 48 such fatalities, including 29 militants, 12 civilians and seven SF personnel, in 2018. Overall-terrorism related fatalities in 2019 thus registered a 48 per cent decline in comparison to 2018. There were a total of 248 fatalities in 2017. Overall fatalities have been declining in Sindh since 2014, when fatalities fell to 1,147 from 1,656 in 2013. 2013 recorded the maximum number of fatalities in a year since March 6, 2000, when SATP started compiling data on major conflicts in Pakistan.

Other parameters of violence also witnessed considerable diminution. While Sindh accounted for eight major incidents (each involving three or more fatalities) of violence, resulting in a total of 33 deaths in 2018, 2019 recorded two such incidents, accounting for six fatalities. One of the major attacks of the year was on February 13, 2019, when unidentified assailants killed three Pashtuns hailing from Bajaur District (Khyber Pakhtunkhwa) while they were commuting in a three-wheeler near the Naudero Bypass in the Larkana District of Sindh. There was a maximum of 153 major incidents resulting in 375 deaths in 2014.

There was also a considerable decrease in the number of explosions in 2019. In comparison to six blasts resulting in 17 fatalities and 14 injuries in 2018, year 2019 recorded only one explosion resulting in one fatality and two persons injured. There a maximum of 116 blasts resulting in 194 fatalities in 2013.

Sectarian violence also remained under control, with just one incident in 2019 resulting in one fatality, the same numbers as in 2018. There were three such incidents in 2017, with 93 fatalities. Sindh had recorded a peak of 92 sectarian attacks in 2013, resulting in 122 deaths and 155 persons wounded.

Except for one incident of civilian killing, resulting in three fatalities, in Larkana District, all other incidents of killings (17) resulting in 22 fatalities in Sindh through 2019 were reported from Karachi District. Sindh has a total of 29 Districts. Karachi recorded 22 incidents of killing, resulting in 47 fatalities, in 2018. When violence was at its peak, Karachi had recorded 1,168 incidents of killing resulting in 1,611 fatalities in in 2013.  

The then Karachi Police chief, Additional Inspector General (AIG) Ghulam Nabi Memon, told Dawn on December 31, 2019, that there was a 33.33 per cent reduction in the cases of target killing. In 2018, the numbers of target killing cases was 18, while 12 cases were reported in 2019. Police also succeeded in arresting 29 kidnappers who were involved in 32 cases of abduction in the city in 2019. Talking about terrorism incidents, the AIG Memon disclosed that there was no bomb blast in the city in 2019, while there were three such cases in 2018 and 51 cases in 2013.

Though there has been significant reduction in the number of terrorism incidents in Karachi in 2019, the city did witness some shocking incidents. On March 22, 2019, unidentified assailants on motorcycle opened fire, targeting renowned religious scholar Mufti Taqi Usmani, in the NIPA Chowrangi area of Karachi, killing two of his guards. Mufti Usmani later told a private TV channel that he was traveling with his wife and two grandsons, who remained unhurt. The then chief of Karachi Police, Amir Ahmed Shaikh, had stated that the motive appeared to be bigger than sectarianism or terrorism as Mufti Usmani was a ‘towering personality’ who commanded respect across the country and the attackers wanted to create chaos in Karachi and the country as well.

Karachi’s relative calm is due to the presence of and periodic operations by the Pakistan Rangers (Sindh). The Pakistan Rangers were called in on September 4, 2013, when violence in the city was surging, with a total of 1,547 fatalities recorded in 2012. The fatalities increased further to 1,656 in 2013. Since then, the Ranger’s operations in Karachi have been extended on a 90-day basis, requiring the Provincial Government’s requisition to the Federal Ministry of Interior, for approval of each extension. The latest extension was given on October 4, 2019, which ended on January 1, 2020. There has been no report till the time of writing regarding further extension.

Earlier, on December 31, 2018, the Pakistan Rangers released a performance report of its ‘Karachi Operations’ between the period September 4, 2013, and December 31, 2018. The report claimed that 2013 recorded 57 incidents of terrorism, which increased to 66 in 2014 and further to 199 in 2015. The number of incidents decreased to 16 in 2016. No such incident was reported in 2017. Two incidents were recorded in 2018. Further, incidents of target killings saw a steep decline:  965 in 2013; 602 in 2014; 199 in 2015; 89 in 2016; 45 in 2017; and nine in 2018. Similarly, recorded cases of extortion also declined: 1,524 in 2013; 899 in 2014; 303 in 2015; 101 in 2016; 65 in 2017; and 51 in 2018. Incidents of kidnapping also decreased from 174 in 2013 to 115 in 2014, 37 in 2015, 26 in 2016, 18 in 2017 and 13 in 2018.

Though terrorism related incidents have declined dramatically, the Counter Terrorism Department (CTD) suspected that a splinter group of Al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) had entered Karachi to carry out terrorist attacks. “We have received reports that six ‘disgruntled’ militants of the AQIS recently arrived in Karachi from Afghanistan and they are trying to activate their sleeper cell,” CTD chief Raja Umar Khattab stated on October 13, 2019. Khattab added that this was a splinter group of AQIS that comprised members of different communities who belonged to Karachi and had gone to Afghanistan. They had reportedly developed differences with their leadership, partly because their ‘services’ had not been utilized for a considerable period of time, prompting them to return to Karachi.

Moreover, The Eurasian Times stated, on January 21, 2020, that an Iranian gang has been found involved in street crime activities in Karachi. According to police reports, between January 2015 and October 2019, a total of 92,889 persons were robbed at gunpoint in streets, roads and parking lots. Most of the victims didn’t resist, but 220 of those who resisted were killed by armed robbers. It is noteworthy, that street crime helps terrorism in Karachi to thrive.  

Though, overall terrorism related incidents touched an all-time low in 2019 due to the Rangers’ operational deployment, the persistent street crimes and presence of latent terrorist elements remains a matter of concern.

Odisha: Retreating Menace
Deepak Kumar Nayak
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

In the first of incident of its kind reported in Odisha, on January 25, 2020, villagers of Janturai village in Malkangiri District, lynched a Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) cadre, while another Maoist sustained injuries at the hands of the outraged villagers. The slain Maoist was identified as Ganga Madhi, a resident of the same District, and was carrying a cash reward of INR 100,000 on his head. The injured Maoist was identified as Jipro Hatrika, a resident of Koraput District, who had a reward of INR 400,000 on his head.

The villagers were angry that the Maoists had opposed the construction of a road to Janturai village, depriving it of development programmes. The village is cut off from rest of the State, as it is encircled by the waters of the Balimela Reservoir on three sides, and on the fourth side is a deep forest that spreads up to the East Godavari District of Andhra Pradesh.

On January 2, 2020, CPI-Maoist cadres shot dead a tribal man, identified as Ranjan Digal, at Burdamaha village under Latingia Panchayat (village level local self-Government institution) in K. Nuagaon Tehsil (revenue unit) in Kandhamal District. According to sources, a group of about eight to 12 armed Maoists reached the village in the late hours of the night and broke into his house, dragged Ranjan out, took him to a local school and shot him dead. The ‘Kandhamal-Kalahandi-Boudh-Nayagarh (KKBN) division’ of the CPI-Maoist claimed responsibility for the killing, alleging that Ranjan was a ‘Police informer’. 

These were the two incidents of Left-Wing Extremism (LWE)-linked killings recorded in the State thus far in 2020 (data till February 9).

According to partial data collated by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), Odisha recorded 14 incidents of LWE-linked killings, resulting in 19 fatalities (10 civilians, one Security Force, SF, personal, and eight LWEs) in 2019; as against 19 incidents of LWE-linked killings, resulting in 32 fatalities (13 civilians, one SF personal, and 18 LWEs) in 2018, a decline of 40.62 per cent in overall fatalities. Though no definitive trend is established in overall fatalities recorded in the State, on year on year basis, the current trend of continuous decline in overall fatalities has remained uninterrupted since 2017. Fatalities fell to 38 in 2017 from 70 in 2016. 

A declining trend is also observed in the civilian fatalities’ category, which registered a drop of 23.07 per cent, from 13 in 2018 to 10 in 2019. As in case of overall fatalities, though no definitive trend is established, the latest round of continuous decline in this category has remained uninterrupted since 2017. Fatalities fell to 18 in 2017 from 27 in 2016. 2010, was the worst year, with 62 fatalities in this category, while 2004 was the best, when no such fatality was recorded. Civilians have been the worst hit category with 358 fatalities, since March 6, 2000, when SATP started compiling data. The SF category registered 221 fatalities, while there were 292 fatalities in the LWE category.

SFs suffered a fatality each in 2019 and 2018. There were nine fatalities in this category in 2017. In 2008, 76 SF personnel were killed, the maximum in a year. Significantly, the SFs did not suffer any casualty in 2000. 

The SF: Maoist kill ratio was 1:8 in 2019. The best kill ratio, 1:18, was achieved by the SFs in 2018. The overall kill ratio since 2000, stands at 1:1.32. Significantly, the ratio remained in favour of SFs in 12 years [2005 (1:3); 2006 (1:3.25); 2007 (1:4); 2010 (1:1.66); 2011 (1:5); 2013 (1:4.14); 2014 (1:11); 2015 (1:7.66); 2016 (1:14); 2017 (1:1.22); 2018 (1:18); and 2019 (1:8). The kill ratio in the remaining seven years, 2001 (2.66:1); 2002 (10:1); 2003 (5.25:1); 2008 (2.30:1); 2009 (2.06:1); and 2012 (1.07:1), went in favour of the Maoists. In 2004, though Maoists did not suffer any loss of cadre, they killed five SF personnel.

Other parameters of violence are also indicative of the diminishing influence and impact of the rebels in the State. A total of 80 LWE-related incidents were recorded in 2018, down to 73 in 2019. Likewise, four major incidents (each resulting in three or more fatalities) were recorded in 2018, down to one in 2019. The Maoists triggered at least five blasts, killing four persons and injuring three others in 2018; though the same number of blasts were triggered in 2019, only three persons were injured.

An analysis of over ground and underground Maoist activities in Odisha also suggests a waning influence. According to SATP, in 2019, Maoist activities were reported from 12 Districts (Odisha has a total of 30 Districts). Six Districts (Bolangir, Kalahandi, Kandhamal, Koraput, Malkangiri, and Nabarangpur), fell in the ‘moderately affected’ category, while the remaining six Districts (Bargarh, Gajapati, Nayagarh, Nuapada, Rayagada, and Sundargarh) were ‘marginally affected’. By comparison, in 2018, Maoist activities were reported from 15 Districts. One District (Malkangiri) was ‘highly affected’; while nine Districts (Bolangir, Bargarh, Kalahandi, Kandhamal, Koraput, Nabarangpur, Nuapada, Rayagada, and Sundargarh) were ‘moderately affected’; and the remaining five (Angul, Dhenkanal, Ganjam, Gajapati, and Jajpur) were ‘marginally affected’.

On November 25, 2019, Minister of State for Home, Dibya Shankar Mishra, informed the State Assembly that as many as 15 Districts (Angul, Bargarh, Bolangir, Boudh, Deogarh, Kalahandi, Kandhamal, Koraput, Malkangiri, Nabarangpur, Nayagarh, Nuapada, Rayagada, Sambalpur and Sundargarh) in Odisha were affected by Maoist activities. According to the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA) statistics, at peak in 2010, as many as 23 Districts (Angul, Bargarh, Bhadrak, Bolangir, Cuttack, Deogarh, Dhenkanal, Gajapati, Ganjam, Jajpur, Jagatsinghpur, Kalahandi, Kandhamal, Keonjhar, Khurda, Koraput, Malkangiri, Mayurbhanj, Nabarangpur, Nuapada, Rayagada, Sambalpur, Sundargarh) were affected by Maoist activities in the State.

The shrinking strength and declining influence of the Maoists was also evident in the number of bandh (total shut down) calls given by the rebels in 2019, at just two, as against four such calls in 2018. At peak, at least 25 bandh calls were given by the rebels in 2011.

CPI-Maoist, through posters and banners, urged people to join their organisation during the celebration of ‘PLGA (People Liberation of Guerrilla Army) Week – December 2 to December 8 – in 2019. For instance, on December 6, 2019, CPI-Maoist posters and banners urging women to join their organisation were put up at several places in Chitrakonda area in the Kalimela region of Malkangiri District in Odisha. Reports indicate that the rebels have been unable to find new recruits.

Nevertheless, there are worries. 15 Districts (Angul, Bargarh, Bolangir, Boudh, Deogarh, Kalahandi, Kandhamal, Koraput, Malkangiri, Nabarangpur, Nayagarh, Nuapada, Rayagada, Sambalpur, and Sundargarh) out of the State's 30 Districts, find place among the 90 Districts in 11 States listed as LWE-affected by the UMHA on February 5, 2019. In addition, the same list of 15 Districts of the State were among the 90 Districts in 11 States, covered under the Security Related Expenditure (SRE) (SRE)/LWE scheme for the purpose of reimbursement of expenditure incurred on counter-LWE operations. Moreover, of these 15 Districts, two Districts (Koraput and Malkangiri) were earlier categorized as 'worst LWE-affected Districts,' in the list of 30 Most Affected LWE Districts from seven States across India, released by the UMHA on August 1, 2018.

In addition to several measures taken in past years, the State Government launched some new initiatives to rehabilitate and bring LWEs into the main stream in the State through 2019. For instance, on November 25, 2019, Minister of State for Home, Dibya Shankar Mishra, stated that the Odisha Government was implementing a 'surrender and rehabilitation policy' under which the Government would provide up to INR 250,000 assistance to middle and lower Maoist cadre who surrender, as well as INR 45,000 as house building assistance; 1742.4 square feet home stead land or INR 25,000; INR 3,000 educational assistance to the children of Maoists; INR 25,000 marriage assistance to unmarried Maoists; as well as arrangements for imparting vocational training to surrendered Maoists.

Moreover, on August 22, 2019, Odisha Chief Secretary Asit Kumar Tripathy, emphasizing the need for expeditious implementation of developmental programmes in the areas affected by LWE in the State, disclosed that the Government would emphasise development of road connectivity, telecommunications and extension of banking services in these areas. He said developmental activities had been expedited in the Malkangiri District after the opening of the Gurupriya Bridge linking the 'cut-off areas' of the Chitrakonda Reservoir, on July 26, 2018.

To check Maoist activities and influence, the National Investigation Agency (NIA), on October 3, 2019, advised the Odisha Police to trace the Maoists' money trail and choke their funding in order to weaken their organisation. Probing terror-related cases in the State, NIA's Director General Yogesh Chander Modi, thus noted,

In the meantime, however, Odisha Police continues to lag in terms of capacities to deal with the Maoist threat as well as with general duties of policing in the State. According to the latest Bureau of Police Research and Development (BPR&D) data, as on January 1, 2018, Odisha had 131.74 Police personnel per 100,000 population, significantly below the inadequate national average of 150.80. More worryingly, the Police/Area Ratio (number of policemen per 100 square kilometres) is just 36.38, as against the national average of 61.31. Both the State and national averages on the Police/Area ratio well below the sanctioned strength, at 43.01 and 78.45, respectively. Worryingly, the sanctioned strength for the States’ Police is 66,973, but 56,651 personnel were in position, a deficit of 15.41 per cent. In addition, the sanctioned strength of the apex Indian Police Service (IPS) Officers in the State is 188, but just 114 officers were in position, a deficit of 39.36 per cent that considerably weakens the executive supervision of the Force.

The Maoists are definitely on the backfoot in the State. The lynching incident of January 25, 2020, moreover, is clear warning that they no longer have the support of the locals and are failing to maintain fear among the masses. It is now up to the Governments – the Centre and State – to expand the necessary administrative, developmental and security outreach to bring the State completely out of this rapidly retreating menace.