South Asia Terrorism Portal

INDIA

J&K: A Divided 'State'
Ajit Kumar Singh
Research Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management

In a meeting with a 24-member delegation from Jammu & Kashmir’s (J&K’s) newly formed Apni Party led by Altaf Bukhari in New Delhi on March 14, 2020, Prime Minister (PM) Narendra Modi “underlined that the Government will work with all sections of the population to realize the hopes of state hood for Jammu and Kashmir at an early opportunity”. The PM also “noted that the democracy in the region could be strengthened through a fast-moving process of political integration”.

The Union Government, on August 5, 2019, introduced a Bill in the Rajya Sabha (Upper House of Parliament) on August 5, 2019, which rescinded the special status of J&K under Article 370 and led to its reduction into two Union Territories (UTs). The Bill was passed by the Lok Sabha (Lower House of Parliament) on August 6, 2019. On August 9, 2019, President Ram Nath Kovind gave his assent to the Bill and it became the Jammu and Kashmir Reorganisation Act, 2019.  The Act split the State of J&K into two UTs – J&K (with a legislature) and Ladakh (without legislature). The two UTs formally came into existence on October 31, 2019.

Apprehensive of an imminent retaliation by the local population, the Union Government enforced a complete clampdown in J&K on August 4, 2019, a day before introducing the Bill, bringing the entire State to a standstill. Though most of the restrictions have now been lifted and J&K is limping back to normalcy, certain restrictions on internet access continue. On February 11, 2020, the Union Government informed Parliament that “mobile data services and internet access through fixed line has also been restored with certain restrictions”. 

Meanwhile, most of the top leaders of mainstream political parties, including three formers Chief Ministers (Farooq Abdullah, Omar Abdullah, and Mehbooba Mufti) were put under arrest on August 4, 2019, and were languishing in the ‘jails’ since then. The 82-year-old Farooq Abdullah was released on March 13, 2020, after an incarceration of over seven months.

On June 20, 2018, the then J&K State was put under Governor's rule and subsequently under President's rule on December 20, 2018. On October 31, 2019, President Ram Nath Kovind, in view of the transformation of the State into a UT, through a notification revoked President's rule. He, however, released another notification, on the same day, taking over the control of the administration of the UT of J&K, which came under the LG rule post first notification. Among other things, the second notification read,

Consequently, a complete political vacuum was created and the democratic set up placed in indefinite suspension.

These moves were preceded by an escalating trend in terrorism and recruitment of locals, the consequence of preceding years of polarizing politics spearheaded by the Bharatiya Janata Party which had come to power at the Centre in May 2014. After a near-continuous decline in terrorism-linked fatalities after the peak of 2001, fatalities had bottomed out in 2012 at 121, according to SATP data. Indeed, the Government puts total fatalities in 2012 at just 99. Thereafter, with a deeply disruptive politics injected into the State, the upward trend in fatalities resumed.

Not surprisingly, the number of local recruits also increased considerably. According to a March 14, 2020, report, of the 257 militants killed in 2018, at least 142 were locals and the remaining 115, foreigners. Similarly, of the 152 militants killed in 2019, 120 were locals. In 2020, out of 24 militants killed in Kashmir, 21 were locals. Former R&AW chief A.S. Dulat, in an interview on March 14, 2020, asserted that radicalism had sharply increased over the preceding three to four months in particular. He noted that the Jamaat-e-Islami, which was originally limited to Sopore and a few other places, had now ramped up its influence throughout the Kashmir Valley.

Moreover, the Government informed Parliament on December 4, 2019,

Meanwhile, the tourism industry which reportedly contributed eight per cent to the State’s gross domestic product (SGDP) suffered heavily due to the instability inflicted on J&K by the Union Government and the BJP. The statistics shared by the Government in the Parliament on December 9, 2019, demonstrate that the collapsed of the industry in the aftermath of the ‘abrogation’ of Article 370.

Purely in terms of the decline in terrorist activities, however, there were visible improvements as a result of the comprehensive clampdown. According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), in 224 days since August 5, 2019, there were a total of 102 fatalities (23 civilians, 10 Security Force, SF, personnel, and 69 terrorists) in 51 incidents of killing (data till March 15, 2020). In the corresponding period (224 days) preceding August 5, 2019, there was a total of 238 fatalities (23 civilians, 74 SF personnel, and 141 terrorists) in 109 incidents of killing. There were four major incidents targeting SF personnel or civilians during the 222 days prior to August 5, 2019, including the February 14, 2019, Pulwama attack, which resulted in death of 40 SF personnel; as against a single incident post-August 5, 2019, resulting in six civilian fatalities. Incidents of explosion, during this period, declined from 55 to 20. Total terrorism related incidents also came down from 287 to 158. 

The decline in terrorism is also evident on year on year basis. As against a total of 452 fatalities (86 civilians, 95 SF personnel, and 271 terrorists) recorded in 205 incidents of killing in 2018, there were 283 fatalities (42 civilians, 78 SF personnel, 163 terrorists) in 135 incidents of killing in 2019. Fatalities in J&K, on year on year basis, was increasing since 2013, with the exception of a slight dip in 2015. The number of major incidents, meanwhile, fell from 54 in 2018 to 28 in 2019. The number of overall terrorism-linked incidents came down to 369 in 2019 as against 598 recorded in 2018. 

The estimated recruitment of terrorists has also come down drastically. There was a total of 105 persons recruited by various terrorist formations between January 1, 2019 and August 4, 2019, as against 28 in the period between August 5, 2019, and January 26, 2020.

The incipient threat of rise of global terrorist formations such as the Islamic State-Jammu and Kashmir (IS-JK) and al Qaeda linked Ansar Ghazwat-ul-Hind (AGH, supporters of holy war in India) was strongly dealt through 2019. Resultantly, these groups were all but neutralized. 

On December 23, 2019, in a clear indication of the improved security situation, the Union Government issued an order to withdraw 72 companies of the Central Armed police Forces (CPAFs). These included 24 companies of the Central Reserve Police Force, 12 each of the Border Security Force, Central Industrial Security Force, Indo-Tibetan Border Police and Sashastra Seema Bal.

However, as expected, the volatility at the border witnessed steep surge. The Government informed Parliament on December 3, 2019,

Through 2019, net infiltration was estimated at 133, in addition to 143 in 2018.

Again, on March 4, 2020, the Government informed Parliament,

According to official data, there was a total of 3,168 cease fire violations in 2019 as against 2,140 such incidents through 2018, and a much lower 881 in 2017 and 449 in 2016.

The encouraging trends in security consolidation have come at the price of an overwhelming curtailment of freedom and political rights in J&K, and the establishment of a pattern of politics relying on blind force against entire populations, rather than the counter-insurgency doctrine of narrowly targeted operations against known terrorists that had come to be established in theatres of armed violence across India. The indiscriminate arrest of virtually the entire leaderships of political parties in the Valley, and the attempts to orchestrate the creation of puppet formations by the Centre, bodes ill for the political future of the region. The Government’s recent initiatives have resulted in a loss of the moral high ground in the global discourse, and have undermined constitutional governance within the country. Lesser sins have inflicted great costs on the nation in the past. It remains to be seen how the present regime’s adventurism will play out in the long term.

INDIA

Mizoram: Persisting Irritants
M.A. Athul
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

Mizoram did not witness a single insurgency-related fatality for the fourth consecutive year in 2019. The last insurgency-linked fatality was reported on March 28, 2015, when three Policemen were killed in an ambush by militants of the Democratic faction of Hmar People’s Convention (HPC-D) near Zokhawthiang in Aizawl District. Only 36 insurgency-related fatalities have been recorded in the State between 2000-2020 (data till March 8, 2020), averaging less than two fatalities per year. In comparison, the entire North East region comprising of seven states, including Mizoram, has recorded on an average 585 fatalities per year.   

Significantly, the State took measures to address two lingering issues in 2019. The first of these was the settlement of Brus who were residing in refugee camps in adjoining Tripura. In an agreement signed on January 16, 2020, more than 30,000 displaced Bru tribals from Mizoram, who were in refugee camps in Tripura, would be permanently settled in that State. The quadripartite agreement was signed between representatives of the Brus, the Government of India (GoI) and the State Governments of Mizoram and Tripura. Over 30,000 Brus (also called Reangs) had fled Mizoram in 1997 after ethnic clashes following the killing of a Mizo forest guard. There have been at least nine attempts for repatriation of the Brus to Mizoram till date, with the latest round of repatriation organised between October 3, 2019, and November 30, 2019, during which 1,165 Brus, belonging to 289 families had returned to Mizoram. Till date 11,107 Bru refugees (2,239 families) have been repatriated back to Mizoram.

The second issue was the detection of illegal immigrants. On December 6, 2019, Mizoram Chief Minister Zoramthanga urged Prime Minister Narendra Modi to give GoI's approval to the Mizoram Maintenance of Household Register Bill, 2019, in order to detect foreigners and curb infiltration into the State, which borders Myanmar and Bangladesh. An unnamed senior official from the Chief Minister's office stated, on December 6,

Earlier, on March 19, 2019, the State Assembly had unanimously passed the Mizoram Maintenance of Household Register Bill, 2019, which aims to create registers containing the names, details and photographs of every resident of the State, on a household basis.

Mizoram Home Minister Lalchamliana had informed the State Assembly in January 2020 that between 2015 and January 2020, at least 20,765 people were arrested for entering Mizoram without the Inner Line Permit (ILP).

Nevertheless, Mizoram continued to face lingering issues which may have a bearing on its security situation in the long run. One such issue is the smuggling of arms. Some of the significant incidents of arrests related to arms smuggling in 2019 include:

December 25, 2019: Border Security Force (BSF) personnel recovered three rifles (one each of M16, AK-56, AK-47) and a pistol and 954 rounds of ammunition from Parva village in Lawngtlai District.

August 7: Two people were arrested along with 199 rounds of ammunition from Chhinga Veng Village in Aizawl District.

August 21: A Myanmar national was arrested along with three AK-series rifles from the Samthang area of the Champhai District of Mizoram.

On February 26, 2020, Mizoram Home Minister Lalchamliana stated in the Mizoram Assembly that between 2004-05 and 2019-20, the State Police recovered 632 different arms, 47,510 rounds of live ammunition and 314 magazines smuggled in, mainly from Myanmar. The seized arms included 134 AK-47 rifles, eight AK-56 rifles and 26 Light Machine Guns. He also added that, in 2019-20, at least 23 different smuggled arms were seized in addition to 27 in 2018-2019.

Significantly, a May 11, 2019 report indicated that, according to intelligence officials, weapons entered north-east Indian states from Myanmar and were routed to neighbouring Bangladesh’s Chittagong Hill Tract (CHT) via Mizoram.

Another issue which has continuously plagued the state has been the issue of drug abuse. A January 2020 report indicated that 54 people had died of drug abuse in 2019, with heroin being the main killer. In 2018, the deaths reported due to drugs stood at 36.  Between 1984 and 2020, at least 1,578 people have died in the State due to drug abuse. 1984 was the year in which the first drug related death due to heroin was reported in Mizoram.

Moreover, according to officials, 3,254 people were also arrested in 2019 on drug charges. More recently, according to a March 1, 2020, report, 134 people were arrested in a state-wide crackdown on drugs over a fortnight. At least 57 people were arrested between February 22 and 29, while 77 people were arrested between February 16 and 21. Separately, on February 29, 2020, Mizoram Police recovered 3.9 Million methamphetamine tablets worth INR 970 Million at Vairengte in Kolasib District.

According to Mizoram Excise department data (available up to June 15, 2019), 4.1 Kilograms of heroin, 66 kilograms of Marijuana and 102,424 tablets of methamphetamine had been recovered in the State in 2019. The total recovery through 2018 stood at 8.7 kilograms of heroin, 187 kilograms of Marijuana and zero methamphetamine tablets.

Meanwhile, though the state was kept out of the purview of the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA), with the provision that States under the ILP system would not come under the purview of the Act, the State witnessed protests against the controversial Act, which was passed on December 12, 2019. These protests included:

December 16, 2019: A demonstration was held against CAA in in front of Vanapa Hall in Aizawl (Aizawl District). The leaderless protest was organised through social media by using the hashtag ‘#zoramrevolutionmovement”.

January 8, 2020: Hundreds of protesters belonging to the Mizo Zirlai Pawl (MZP), Mizoram’s apex students’ body, waved black flags at the lone Mizoram Member of Parliament (MP), C. Lalrosanga, at Lengpui Airport at Aizawl. The MP had voted in favour of CAA.

January 10, 2020: MZP observed ‘black day’ in protest against the passing of CAA. MZP volunteers hoisted black flags at various places.

All these protests were, however, non-violent in nature.

The state had vehemently opposed the initial attempt to introduce the then Citizenship Amendment Bill (CAB) in the initial months of 2019, during which MZP and the Young Mizo Association (YMA), the apex Mizo youth organisation, had boycotted the 2019 Republic Day (January 26) and forcibly prevented two officers of the Indian Administration Service (IAS) from attending Republic Day functions in Aizawl.

The State appears unprepared to tackle these law and order issues. On October 13, 2019, Mizoram Director General of Police (DGP) S.B.K. Singh asserted that the Police was facing a manpower crunch, as new recruitment did not correspond to the number of personnel who retire in a year. He stated that more than 300 Policemen retired every year. A huge shortage of Policemen had developed in the State, because the recruitment process was not regular. He also added that the present strength of the State police was 9,000, while it is supposed to be at least 12,000. According to latest available Bureau of Police Research & Development (BPR&D) data, as on January 1, 2019, as against the sanctioned strength of 11,087 personnel, the State had 8,414 personnel in position, a deficit of 24.1 per cent.

Although the State has been immune from significant insurgency-related violence since 1986, it continues to grapple with acute issues of drug abuse and arms smuggling which can have a substantial impact in the long run in the State, as well as across the north-east region. While some fitful measures are put in place from time to time, a broad proclivity to political and administrative lethargy has allowed these problems to persist well beyond their natural life.