South Asia Terrorism Portal

Balochistan: The Heart of Violence 
Ajit Kumar Singh
Research Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management 

On January 10, 2020, a suicide bomber blew himself up inside a mosque-cum seminary, Darul Uloom Al Sharia, in the Ghosabad area of Satellite Town in Quetta (Quetta District), the Provincial capital of Balochistan, killing at least 15 persons and injuring another 20. Those killed included the head cleric of the mosque and a Deputy Superintendent of Police (DSP). The Islamic State (IS) claimed responsibility for the attack.

On January 7, 2020, two civilians were killed and another 14 were injured in a blast on McConaughey Road, close to Liaquat Bazar, in Quetta. Hizbul Ahrar, a splinter group of the Jamaatul Ahrar (JA), which itself is a splinter group of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), claimed responsibility for the attack.

According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), during the first 12 days of 2020, Pakistan has recorded a total of 22 fatalities (18 civilians, three Security Force, SF, personnel, and one militant) in five incidents of killing (data till January 12, 2020). 18 of these fatalities (17 civilians and one militant) were reported from Balochistan alone.”.

Through 2019, among Pakistan’s four provinces, Balochistan accounted for the maximum number of fatalities (180), followed by Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (130), Punjab (28), and Sindh (25). In fact, since 2016, Balochistan has maintained its top position in the number of overall fatalities among the four provinces.

However, the declining trend in overall fatalities established in Balochistan since 2014 (with an exception of 2018) continued in 2019 as well. 180 fatalities were recorded (83 civilians, 54 SF personnel, and 43 terrorists) as against 385 fatalities (234 civilians, 77 SF personnel, and 65 terrorists) recorded in 2018. Pakistan at large has registered declining fatalities since 2015.

The number of incidents of killing also declined from 70 in 2018 to 48 in 2019. The number of overall terrorism-related incidents also came down from 129 in 2018 to 72 in 2019. Major incidents and resultant fatalities declined to 28 incidents and 151 fatalities in 2019, as against at 33 incidents and 316 fatalities in 2018. Similarly, the number of suicide attacks and resultant fatalities came down from 10 and 211, respectively, in 2018, to six and 54 in 2019.

However, there were several continuing worries about the existing security situation in the Province.

The SFs:terrorists kill ratio remained in favour of the terrorists for the second consecutive year, at 1.18:1 in 2018 and 1.25:1 in 2019, indicating that the SFs have still not been able to establish satisfactory hold in the region.

Further, attacks against ‘outsiders’ remained unabated. According to the SATP database, a total of 229 ‘outsiders’, including 20 in 2019, have been killed in Balochistan since the killing of Nawab Akbar Bugti, leader of the Bugti tribe and President of the Jamhoori Watan Party (JWP), on August 26, 2006, (data till January 11, 2020). Bugti was killed in a military operation in the Chalgri area of the Bhamboor Hills in Dera Bugti District. These attacks against ‘outsiders’ were primarily carried out by Baloch insurgent groups in reaction to the ongoing disappearances and extrajudicial killings engineered by Pakistani State Forces. The Baloch insurgents believe that these outsiders, mainly Punjabis (178 of 229 ‘outsiders’ killed were Punjabis), work as spies for the SFs.

The Human Rights Commission of Pakistan (HRCP) in a report titled ‘Balochistan: Neglected Still’ released on October 28, 2019, noted,

In its earlier report, 'State of Human Rights 2018', HRCP had observed,

On October 22, 2019, relatives of missing Baloch people held a protest rally in Quetta to demand the immediate release of their family members who have been illegally abducted by the SFs. The protestors said that a large number of political activists and intellectuals were being abducted illegally by SFs from various parts of Balochistan.

Meanwhile, Quetta, the provincial capital, continues to remain the epicenter of violence. Out of 180 fatalities recorded in the Province, Quetta alone accounted for 60 fatalities in 2019, with Loralai coming a distant second, with 31 fatalities. Out of a total of 7,695 fatalities recorded in the Province since March 6, 2000, when SATP stated compiling data, Quetta alone has accounted for 2,550 fatalities, i.e. 33.13 per cent.

Out of 83 civilian fatalities recorded in 2019, Quetta alone accounted for 34, followed by Gwadar with 16. Since March 6, 2000, Quetta has accounted for 39.2 per cent of civilian fatalities recorded in Balochistan.

In the meantime, the worst attack of the year 2019 in Pakistan, in terms of civilian fatalities, took place in Quetta, on April 12. At least 21 persons, including 19 civilians, were killed and 30 were injured in an improvised explosive device (IED) explosion at a vegetable market in the Hazarganji vegetable market of Quetta. The target of the attack were the Hazara Shias, as the area is largely populated by them. The second worst attack also took place in Balochistan: in the intervening night of April 17 and 18, 2019, unidentified assailants shot dead at least 14 passengers after forcibly offloading them from a bus plying on the Makran Coastal Highway in the Ormara area of Gwadar District.

In terms of incidents of killing, Quetta saw 14, followed by Loralai with six. However, Loralai accounted for the maximum number of SF fatalities, 15, followed by Quetta with 12.

Indeed, Mohsin Hassan Butt, Inspector General of Police (IGP) Balochistan, on August 27, 2019, conceded that three Districts of Balochistan – Quetta, Gwadar and Lasbela – had been declared ‘A-areas’ in order to curb ‘criminal activities’, to restore peace in the areas. However, other Districts such as Loralai have been facing a surge in terrorism-related attacks on SFs.

It is Islamabad’s continuing policy of choosing between ‘good terrorists’ and ‘bad terrorists’ that is responsible for the continuing unrest in Quetta. Reports indicate that the mosque attacked on January 10, 2020, was frequently visited by Afghan Taliban leader, Mawlawi Abdul Hakeem, and the group was the main target of the IS suicide bomber. Notably, a blast inside a mosque in the Kuchlak town area of Quetta on August 16, 2019, killed four people, including the prayer leader Ahmadullah Akhundzada, the brother of Afghan Taliban ‘chief’ Hibatullah Akhundzada.

Though trends indicate that the situation in the Province has improved considerably in terms of terrorist and insurgent activity, the latest attacks are the manifestation of the reality that the necessary ingredients for terrorism continue to thrive. Balochistan is likely to face a continuing wave of violence by terrorists, insurgents and state Forces well into the foreseeable future.

Bihar: Coordination Missing 
Indrajit Sharma
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management 

On December 29, 2019, cadres of the Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) killed two civilians in two separate incidents after branding them as ‘police informers’ in the Lakhisarai District of Bihar. In one incident, the Maoists abducted Mughal Koda (50) from Baskund village under Chanan Police Station limits and shot him dead. In the second incident, Maoists abducted one Sanjay Koda (30) from Gobardaha village under the same Police Station limits and subsequently shot him dead. Maoist pamphlets recovered from both the incident sites warned local residents that they would meet the same fate if they dared to leak information about rebel activities to the Police.

On November 7, 2019, CPI-Maoist cadres killed a man, identified as Sunil Paswan (30), a resident of Pasiya Bhandari village under the Deo Police Station limits in Aurangabad District, again accusing him of being a ‘police informer’.

On October 12, 2019, Maoists killed one person, identified as Gorelal Koda (40), in Lethia Balchand village under the Piri Bazar Police Station limits in Lakhisarai District.

Disturbingly, the State has not been able to contain civilian fatalities, a key index of security in an area/region, as the year 2019 witnessed a surge in fatalities in this category. Civilian fatalities through 2019 stood at 13, compared to nine through 2018. After recording increases in two consecutive years – 2016 and 2017 – civilian fatalities in the State had declined in 2018.

According to partial data collated by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), Bihar recorded 21 fatalities, including 13 civilians, one Security Force (SF) trooper, and seven Maoists in 2019. There was a total of 14 fatalities, including nine civilians, three SF personnel, and two Maoists in 2018. Thus, a surge of 50 per cent was registered in terms of overall fatalities. The incidents of killing also increased from 12 in 2018 to 17 in 2019, i.e. an increase of 41.66 per cent. Moreover, fatalities were reported from seven Districts of the State in 2019 as against five in 2018.

Analysis of some other parameters of Maoist-linked violence in the State indicates a marginal increase in 2019 as compared to 2018. According to SATP, the number of explosions carried out by the rebels increased from two in 2018 to three in 2019. Incidents of arson increased from three in 2018 to four in 2019. The number of exchanges of fire between SFs and the Maoists increased from four in 2018 to five in 2019.

On the positive side, in the fight between SFs and Maoists, the SFs achieved a positive kill ratio of 1:7 in 2019 as against an adverse ratio of 1.5:1 in 2018. The overall kill ratio since March 6, 2000, favours the SFs, at 1:1.16. SFs arrested another 50 Maoists in 2019, including three ‘commanders’, in 36 incidents of arrest in 2019, in addition to 101 Maoists, including 13 ‘commanders’, in 55 such incidents in 2018. Further, mounting SF pressure resulted in the surrender of seven Maoists, including two ‘commanders’, in 2019, in addition to four, including one ‘commander’ in 2018.

Overall Maoist-linked incidents reduced from 81 in 2018 to 64 in 2019 and the geographical reach of Maoist-linked activities contracted from 15 Districts in 2018 to 13 in 2019.

Nevertheless, worries persist. Out of the State’s 38 Districts, 16 [Arwal, Aurangabad, Banka, East Champaran, Gaya, Jamui, Jehanabad, Kaimur, Lakhisarai, Munger, Muzaffarpur, Nalanda, Nawada, Rohtas, Vaishali, West Champaran] find place among the 90 Districts in 11 States listed as Left Wing Extremism [LWE]-affected by the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA) on February 5, 2019.

At this juncture the Government, both at the Center and the State need to work in tandem. Regrettably, however, there seems to have been a lack of coordination in the approach to deal with the menace.

On August 26, 2019, Union Home Minister (UHM) Amit Shah, while reviewing the security situation in 10 LWE-affected States in New Delhi, stated that LWE cannot be eradicated without the vigilance and efficiency of the local Police, as well as the States’ use of central schemes and their own budgets for Police modernisation.

Flagging concerns, Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, during the same meeting asserted that the “fight against LWE is a joint responsibility of Centre and State and therefore, the financial burden should also be shared by both.” He further warned, “stoppage of funding for Special Infrastructure Scheme (SIS)” by the UMHA will “adversely affect the ongoing development work in the LWE-affected Districts,” and urged that the scheme should continue. No information about the current status of the implementation of SIS is available in open sources.

Much earlier, according to a May 5, 2019, report, the UMHA had proposed the withdrawal of two battalions of Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) deployed in LWE affected areas in Bihar. Reacting to the proposal, the Bihar Government had observed,

Meanwhile, according to the latest Bureau of Police Research and Development (BPR&D) data, as on January 1, 2018, Bihar continues to reel under significant deficits in the strength and quality of the State Police Force, the first line of defense against any kind of internal threat. The State’s police-population ratio (policemen per hundred thousand populations) stands at an abysmal 74.76, the lowest among States in the country, and far below the national average of 150.80, which itself is unacceptably lower than the United Nations prescribed standard of 222 for peacetime policing. In absolute terms, there is a vacancy of 50,291 personnel (39.20 per cent) against the sanctioned strength of 1,28,286 in Bihar. Moreover, of a sanctioned strength of 242 apex Indian Police Service (IPS) Officers in the State, 54 posts (22.31 per cent) remained vacant, considerably weakening executive direction of the Force.

According to BPR&D data, of a total of 1,064 Police Stations in the State, 254 (23.87 per cent of the total) had no telephones and 87 Police Stations (8.17 per cent of the total) had no wireless/mobile connectivity.

According to a recent survey report titled, 'The Status of Policing in India Report 2019', published by Common Cause & Lokniti - Centre for the Study Developing Societies (CSDS),

Maoists in Bihar, as in the other States across the country where they had significant presence, have weakened considerably. But they have also demonstrated their strength of hitting back again and again, across the country, and Bihar is not an exception. Governments, both at the Centre and the State, must realize this, and work in unison to prevent the Maoists from regrouping and regaining their strength.

AFGHANISTAN

34 civilians killed in Herat Province:  On January 8, at least 34 people, including women and children, were killed in a roadside bomb blast in Herat-Kandahar Highway in Shawiz area of Herat Province. Tolo News, January 9, 2020.

INDIA

50 NDFB-S militants come back from Myanmar to take part in peace talks with GoI:  50 National Democratic Front of Bodoland-Saoraigwra (NDFB-S) militants came back to India from Myanmar on January 11 as part of the ongoing talks with the Government of India. According to NDFB-S top leader “All the 50 members of the NDFB-S left Myanmar early on Saturday [January 11]. The Indian Army escorted the leaders and cadres from the International border to an undisclosed Army base.” A senior intelligence official stated, “All this is being directly monitored by Ministry of Home Affairs. We have not been informed officially yet. The top leadership of the group will be taken to Delhi as part of peace talks.” News 18, January 12, 2020.

UAPA Tribunal upholds Centre’s ban on SFJ:  The Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act (UAPA) Tribunal on January 9 upheld the Centre’s ban on pro-Khalistan group — Sikhs for Justice (SFJ) - ensuring that the group is declared as an unlawful association. This comes as a big relief for security agencies in Punjab, where the group has been trying to revive a separatist movement in the State. The Director General of Police (DGP) Dinkar Gupta said the ban on the SFJ was good news for the State, where it had been fishing for young and gullible youth, and radicalising them. The Tribune, January 9, 2020.

PAKISTAN

15 persons killed in suicide blast inside a mosque in Quetta in Balochistan:  A suicide bomber targeted a mosque in Quetta, the provincial capital of Balochistan, during evening prayers on Friday, January 10, killing at least 15 people and wounding 20 others, officials said. The blast took place in Satellite Town of Quetta. The Islamic State (IS) claimed responsibility for the attack, according to the SITE intelligence group. Daily Times, January 11, 2020.

PTM announces formation of jirga to strengthen its cause and jointly fight for Pashtun's rights:  On January 12, the Pashtun Tahaffuz Movement (PTM) in a rally, announced the formation of a jirga (tribal council) to convince Pashtun leaders to join the PTM to strengthen its cause and jointly fight for Pashtun's rights, held a public gathering at Mundan Park in Bannu town (Bannu District) of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province. PTM is a rights-based alliance that, besides calling for the de-mining of the former tribal areas and greater freedom of movement in the latter, has insisted on an end to the practices of extrajudicial killings, enforced disappearances and unlawful detentions, and for their practitioners to be held to account within a truth and reconciliation framework. Dawn, January 13, 2020.