South Asia Terrorism Portal

Quetta Blast: Slow Reverberations
Ajit Kumar Singh
Research Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management

Amidst reports emerging that the long-drawn talks between the United States (US) and the Afghan Taliban were at the ‘concluding stage’, a blast inside a mosque in the Kuchlak town area of Quetta (Quetta District), the provincial capital of the Balochistan Province of Pakistan, on August 16, 2019, killed four people, including the prayer leader Ahmadullah Akhundzada, the brother of Afghan Taliban ‘chief’ Hibatullah Akhundzada. Some 25 people were also injured in the blast. The Deputy Inspector General of Police, Quetta, Abdul Razzaq Cheema, stated, “An explosive time device was planted under the wooden chair of the prayer leader.”

Columnist Rahimullah Yusufzai disclosed that the mosque was attached to a madrassa (seminary) that had earlier been run by Hibatullah: “After he [Hibatullah] became the emir he left this place. His younger brother [Ahmadullah]… was running the madrassas…”

The targeted mosque has long controlled by and linked to the Quetta Shura the 'executive council' of the top leadership of the Afghan Taliban. An unidentified Taliban source corroborated, "This mosque was a place where most of the Taliban members used to meet and discuss issues. The duties of the mosque were handed over to Ahmadullah by Hibatullah after he was appointed as the emir of the Taliban group [in 2016]."

Significantly, Kuchlak, is a major transit point for Afghan Taliban members to move between Pakistan and Afghanistan, and has a large population of Afghan refugees. It is, moreover, well established that the Quetta Shura, started operating out of Quetta following the Taliban’s ouster from Afghanistan.

Incidentally, Hibatullah’s predecessor Mullah Akhtar Mansour was also killed in Balochistan, in a drone strike carried out by the US. On May 21, 2016, the US carried a drone attack in Kuchaki area of Nushki District in Balochistan, killing Mansour and his driver, identified as Muhammad Wali. Mansour had been made amir in July 2015, after Taliban’s founder Mullah Mohammed Omar’s death on April 23, 2013, was acknowledged by the Pakistani state and the Taliban.

It is pertinent to recall here, that after the eighth round of negotiations between the US and the Afghan Taliban ended on August 12, 2019, in Doha, a Taliban representative (name not disclosed) in the talks stated, “This round of talks has been very productive and we are near to an agreement that will be finalized and hopefully announced in the coming weeks.”

Earlier, on August 12, 2019, the day the round of talks concluded, US Special Representative for Afghanistan Reconciliation Zalmay Khalilzad tweeted, “We've concluded this round of talks that started Aug 3 between the US and the Taliban. Over the last few days, the two sides focused on technical details. They were productive. I am on my way back to DC to consult on next steps.”

However, soon after the blast in Quetta, speculation was rife that the talks between the US and the Taliban would be a casualty. However, on August 17, 2019, US President Donald Trump tweeted, “Just completed a very good meeting on Afghanistan. Many on the opposite side of this 19-year war, and us, are looking to make a deal - if possible!”

The Taliban was even more positive in its approach. An unnamed Taliban leader asserted, “If someone thinks martyring our leaders would stop us from our goal they're living in a fool's paradise. We are close to our goals.”

Developments after the blast indicate that, as of now, the killing of the Taliban chief's brother will have no immediate impact on the talks and the Taliban, like the US , are also in hurry to achieve their goal of securing the withdrawal of the US and allied Forces in Afghanistan. Notably, according to the December 2015 US Department of Defense (DoD) report,

A resurgence of Taliban violence is ongoing and, according to a BBC study published on January 31, 2018, the Taliban was openly active in 70 per cent of Districts in Afghanistan: in full control of 14 Districts, i.e. four per cent of the country and have an active and open physical presence in a further 263, i.e. 66 per cent. According to the last District-stability data assessment reported by SIGAR in its January 2019 Quarterly Report, out of 407 Districts in Afghanistan, 59 Districts, approximately 14.5 percent of all, were under Taliban control.

The Taliban is, however, being challenged by the Islamic State (IS, also Daesh) across Afghanistan, but more specifically in Nangarhar and Kunar Provinces. “We continue to see heavy fighting between Taliban and the Islamic State of Khorasan Province [IS-KP] in Nangarhar and Kunar,” said Colone Knut Peters, a spokesperson for NATO. Antonio Giustozzi, in his book titled The Islamic State in Khorasan: Afghanistan, Pakistan and the New Central Asian Jihad observed, “IS-K also had a strategic aim of ultimately replacing the Taliban, TTP [Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan] and other insurgent groups in Khorasan…” Daesh has also been gaining ground. Most recently, in the night of August 18, 2019, Daesh carried out a suicide bombing at a crowded wedding party in Kabul killing at least 63 people.

Meanwhile, according to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), since 2007, at least 86,225 militants (mostly Taliban) have been killed in Afghanistan (data till August 18, 2019). The Taliban continues to engage in negotiations, even as it exploits the progressively weakening ground situation of state Forces. Academician Dawood Azami argues, “As the peace talks are entering an important phase, the Taliban want to maximize their leverage and speak from a position of strength at the negotiating table.”

The Taliban it seems believes that the successful peace talks with the US will help it take on IS more effectively and extend its unchallenged influence across the country. The leadership also believes that the deal will help expand its acceptance on the political front as well.

The way ahead is far from easy. Peter Galbraith, a former US diplomat and ex-United Nations deputy special representative for Afghanistan, thus noted

Though the killing of Ahmadullah Akhundzada in Quetta has had no visible impact on the ongoing talks, it clearly establishes the continued presence and operation of the Afghan Taliban from Pakistani soil, and introduces potentially disruptive elements. While the Taliban has sought to dismiss the significance of the incident, as with the Mansour killing, this assassination will have inevitable impact on the troubled US-Pakistan-Taliban triangle. 

North Waziristan: Resurgent Terror
Tushar Ranjan Mohanty
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

Two Security Force (SF) personnel were killed in an improvised explosive device (IED) explosion in Laddha tehsil (revenue unit) of North Waziristan District in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) on August 17, 2019.

Three SF personnel were killed and another was injured in a terrorist attack on the Malkan SF checkpost in the Razmak area of North Waziristan District on August 2, 2019.

Six Army personnel were killed when terrorists from across the Afghanistan border opened fire on a border patrolling party near the Gurbaz area of North Waziristan District on July 27, 2019. "Terrorists from across the border fire raided on Pakistan Army border patrolling party. 6 soldiers embraced shahadat," a statement released by the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) read.

One soldier was killed and five were injured in two separate bomb explosions in North Waziristan District on July 10, 2019. The first incident occurred near the Kharqamar check-post in Data Khel tehsil. Officials said that a bomb disposal squad was searching the area when a remote-controlled device went off. Four SF personnel were injured. One of the injured personnel later succumbed to his injuries. The second blast took place near Mir Ali town when an SF vehicle hit an IED while it was on its way to the Army’s Golden Arrow School, which had been hit by a rocket.

Three Army officers and a soldier were killed in an IED explosion in the Kharqamar area of North Waziristan on June 7, 2019. An ISPR statement disclosed that four soldiers also sustained injuries.

According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), North Waziristan has accounted for a total of 24 SF fatalities in terrorism-related violence in 2019, thus far (data till August 18, 2019). During the corresponding period of 2018, there were 16 such fatalities, and in 2017, 2016, 2015, 2014, and 2013 there were zero, four, 21, 51, and 65 such fatalities, respectively.

North Waziristan recorded a total of 30 SF fatalities through 2018, five in 2017, four in 2016, 29 in 2015, 70 in 2014, and 88 in 2013.  

After a declining trend between 2014 and 2016, there has been an evident surge in violence against SFs in North Waziristan since 2017. On the other hand, the number of militants killed has drastically declined since 2015, with the exception of 2018.

The ratio of SFs: Militants killed, which remained in favour of SFs till 2017, was reversed for the first time in 2018, at 1.07:1 and has worsened drastically to 8:1 in 2019.  

Not surprisingly, the overall situation has also deteriorated. Incidents of killing had fallen to their second lowest, at five, in 2017, but went up to 14 in 2018 and have already touched that number (14) in 2019. The total number of violent incidents has also increased.

North Waziristan was one among the seven Agencies of the erstwhile Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and was previously known as North Waziristan Agency (NWA). However, on May 31, 2018, FATA was merged with the KP Province and its status was changed from Agency to District, as was case of the other six agencies.

North Waziristan shares borders with Bannu, Tank, Dera Ismail Khan and Kurram Districts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa in the North and Northeast; Sherani and Musakhel Districts of Balochistan to the south; and Khost, Paktia, and Paktika Provinces of Afghanistan to the west and north-west. The strategically central and vulnerable location gives it tremendous importance for the militants.

North Waziristan has been a hotbed of terror since violence surged within Pakistan in 2007. The District (and previous Agency) has recorded a total of 7,221 fatalities [835 civilians, 740 SF personnel, 5,396 terrorists and 250 not-specified (NS)] since March 6, 2000, when SATP commenced compiling data on Pakistan. These fatalities have been recorded in a total of 991 incidents of killing, of which 548 were 'major incidents’ (each involving three or more fatalities). These major incidents resulted in the death of 5,962 persons (573 civilians, 566 SF personnel, 4,612 militants and 211 NS).

Things changed with the launch of operation Zarb-e-Azb (Sword of the Prophet) in North Waziristan, on June 15, 2014, in the aftermath of the attack on the Jinnah International Airport, Karachi, on June 8-9, 2014. At least 33 persons, including all 10 attackers, were killed in the Karachi attack. On June 15, 2016, the then Director General (DG) ISPR Lieutenant-General Asim Saleem Bajwa declared at a Press Conference,

Though it was the epicentre of all terrorist activities, Pakistan had long delayed the operation in North Waziristan, as the region also provided shelter to its own terrorist proxy, the Haqqani Network. The Network had long been accused by the United States of attacking allied forces in Afghanistan. Significantly, in the ISPR Press Conference and a continuous succession of the agency reports, the Pakistani Army had not killed even a single terrorist drawn from the Haqqani Network, despite the group’s safe haven in North Waziristan. According to unnamed tribal sources the Haqqani Network, an affiliate of the Afghan Taliban, had been based in North Waziristan for decades, but abruptly left the area even as Operation Zarb-e-Azb commenced on June 15, allegedly tipped off by the military. Many Haqqani members shifted across the border to Afghanistan or left for other parts of Pakistan.

Meanwhile, the recent attacks on SFs in North Waziristan clearly demonstrate that the terrorists, despite their losses, retain significant capacities to strike. The worsening ratio of SFs to militants killed, underlines this reality. 

Unsurprisingly, as in the past, the terrorists have started asserting their dominance by issuing threats and imposing their diktats on the people. Most recently, on July 31, 2019, the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), in a one-page message in Urdu seen by people in Miranshah, the North Waziristan District headquarters, warned,

The rising attacks on SF personnel in North Waziristan and the increasing stridency of extremist diktats refutes Government and Army claims of having completely sanitised the area of terrorism.