South Asia Terrorism Portal

SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
[SAIR]

Data and assessments from SAIR can be freely published in any form with credit to the South Asia Intelligence Review of the South Asia Terrorism Portal.

Chhattisgarh: Gains and Losses
Deepak Kumar Nayak
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

In the early hours of November 7, 2019, a constable of the Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF), identified as Kamata Prasad, was killed during an encounter with cadres of the Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist), in Jerapalli village, Bijapur District. Deputy Inspector General of Police (DIGP) of Bastar division, anti-Naxal [Left Wing Extremism, LWE] operation, Sundarraj P, disclosed that the gun-battle took place at around 4am [IST] when a joint team of the CRPF and its elite unit CoBRA (Commando Battalion for Resolute Action), was carrying out a search operation in the Pamed area. When the patrolling team was cordoning off a forest area near Jerapalli village, a group of Maoists opened fire, leading to a gunfight, in which constable Kamta Prasad sustained injuries, and later died.

On October 12, 2019, CPI-Maoist cadre killed a 32-year-old man in Bijapur District, after accusing him of being a ‘police informer’. The body of the victim, identified as Parke Kristaiyya, was spotted by locals, lying on a road near Dudheda-Nayapara village under Tarlaguda Police Station limits, with a Maoist leaflet nearby in which the Madded Area Committee of the CPI-Maoist had claimed responsibility for the killing. The Maoists alleged that Kristaiyya had continued to help the Police despite being warned several times.

On October 11, 2019, a CPI-Maoist cadre was killed in an exchange of fire with Security Forces (SFs) in a forest near Tekmetla village under Usoor Police Station limits in Bijapur District. When a joint squad of the 229^th CRPF Battalion and local Police were cordoning off a forested area, a gun-battle broke out between the two sides. Although, the rebels disappeared into the dense forest, the SFs recovered the body of the slain Maoist along with a muzzle-loading gun. The identity of the slain Maoist is yet to be ascertained.

14 incidents of Maoist-linked killing have been recorded in Bijapur since the beginning of 2019, thus far (data till November 10, 2019), according to partial data collated by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP). During the corresponding period in 2018, at least 25 such incidents of killing resulting in 57 fatalities (six civilians, 12 SF personnel, and 39 Maoists) had been recorded. Another, eight such incidents of killing resulting in 13 fatalities (one civilian, and 12 Maoists) were recorded in the remaining period of 2018.

Bijapur, one of the twenty-seven Districts of Chhattisgarh, was carved out of Dantewada as a separate District on May 11, 2007. Since then, the District has recorded at least 719 fatalities (170 civilians, 222 SF personnel, 322 Maoists and five fatalities which remained unspecified), as compared to 2,583 fatalities (596 civilians, 950 SF personnel, 1,014 Maoists and 23 fatalities which remained not specified) registered in the State (data till November 10, 2019). Thus, Bijapur accounts for a significant 27.83 per cent of the total fatalities recorded in the State, and 10.62 per cent of the total fatalities recorded in the country [total overall India fatalities during this period stood at 6,770 (2,581 civilians, 1,695 SF personnel, 2,421 Maoists, and 73 fatalities which remained not specified)].

An analysis of the fatalities data suggests that the overall SF: Maoist kill ratio is in favour of the SFs at 1:1.45.  However, it was in the favour of the Maoists at 1.4:1 in the current year, so far. The ratio has been in favour of the Maoists in two earlier instances: in 2007, the ratio was 4.9:1; and civilian fatalities, at 34 were also at a peak; and in 2011, at 1.28:1. In the following year, civilian fatalities also increased from 10 in 2011 to 17 in 2012. Worryingly, in the current year, with the SF:Maoist ratio favouring the Maoists, civilian fatalities have also reached their highest level since 2014, when they were 10.

Incidents of killing had also increased from 25 in 2017 to 33 in 2018. 14 such incidents have already been recorded in 2019. Similarly, violent incidents also increased from 73 in 2017 to 84 in 2018, and 41 such incidents have been registered in 2019, till date. Major incidents (each involving three or more fatalities) increased from one in 2017 to five in 2018. One such incident has been recorded in 2019. Overall fatalities increased from 29 in 2017 to 69 in 2018, and 20 fatalities have been recorded in 2019.

Unsurprisingly, the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA), while assessing the LWE situation, had listed Bijapur among the eight worst LWE-affected Districts in Chhattisgarh and the 30 worst-affected Districts identified by UMHA across the country, in 2018. More recently, on February 5, 2019, UMHA listed Bijapur among the 14 Districts of Chhattisgarh affected by LWE, among the 90 Districts in 11 States, affected across the country.

Bijapur, spread over a geographical area of 6,562.48 square kilometres, of which around 1,848.07 square kilometres (28 per cent of its total area) is under forest cover, has tremendous geo-strategic importance for the Maoists, falling under the formidable Abujhmadh forest region (which spreads over 3,900 square kilometres), and the troubled Bastar Division, a major challenge for Chhattisgarh, which is still the worst LWE-affected area in the country. The geographical proximity with the Maoist-afflicted Narayanpur District (Chhattisgarh) to the North; Bastar District (Chhattisgarh) to the North-east; Dantewada District (Chhattisgarh) to the east; Sukma District (Chhattisgarh) to the South-east; Karimnagar, Warangal and Khammam Districts of Telangana on the south; and Gadchiroli District of Maharashtra on the West, makes it a critical strategic trijunction for the Maoists.

According to an October 9, 2019, report, the Dandakaranya region, particularly the three Districts of south Bastar — Bijapur, Dantewada and Sukma — remains the most formidable stronghold of the Maoists, as also their main recruiting ground.

The result is that the security situation in the District has always been a challenge. Despite this, acts of negligence on the part of the State Government persist. For instance, a July 19, 2019, report, indicated that Chhattisgarh had failed to utilize the funds collected under the District Mineral Foundation (DMF) trust for the Maoist-affected areas of the State. INR 622 million was collected under the DMF in Bijapur District, a major part of which is witnessing Maoist violence. Of this amount, authorities could utilize INR 244 million. Such a lackadaisical approach on the part of the political and administrative establishments mar the sacrifices of the SFs, who have brought much relief to the region, as compared to the peak levels of insecurity during the 2007 and 2009 period.

According to the latest Bureau of Police Research and Development (BPR&D) data, as on January 1, 2018, the Police/Area Ratio (number of policemen per 100 square kilometres) in Chhattisgarh was 44.15, as against the national average of 61.31. This is well below the sanctioned ratio of 52.97 for the State. In addition, the sanctioned strength of the apex Indian Police Service (IPS) Officers in the State is 142, but just 91 officers were in position, considerably weakening executive direction of the Force. Worryingly, of a total of 453 Police Stations, 131 Police Stations in the State have no vehicles, and 41 have no telephones.

An October 9, 2019, report noted that, for Bijapur, Narayanpur and Sukma, a combined area of more than 19,373.43 square kilometres, there were only 50 mobile towers. Such a deficiency in communications infrastructure has an adverse impact on the operational capability of SFs and the intelligence network. Mobile phone towers significantly increase the flow of intelligence from core areas.

Maoist violence in Bijapur has, no doubt, declined, as is the wider case across Chhattisgarh as well as India at large. This has been the result of sustained efforts by SFs. What is needed now is the political and administrative will to ensure the restoration of civil governance in the areas recovered through SF action, as well as an intensification of efforts to push the Maoists out of their remaining safe havens.

 

INDIA

Manipur: Igniting the Tinderbox
Giriraj Bhattacharjee
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

On November 8, 2019, State Deputy Chief Minister Yumnam Joykumar Singh declared that the Naga peace deal in its current form was not be suitable for Manipur, as it only catered to Naga demands. On the other hand, the current administrative arrangements for the hills within Manipur caters to “…a mixed population of Nagas and Kukis”. Singh emphasised, “Manipur is different from other northeastern states like Meghalaya, which have homogenous populations. An autonomous council comprising only Naga’s will not work for Manipur.” Currently, Manipur’s Hill Districts are administered by Six Autonomous District Councils (ADCs) formed under the Manipur (Hill Areas) District Councils Act, 1971 Chandel ADC, Churachandpur ADC, Sadar Hills ADC, Manipur North ADC, Tamenglong ADC and Ukhrul ADC.The rumour of a Territorial Council for the Nagas was reported after a ‘breakthrough’ was reached between the Government of India and Naga armed groups on October 31, 2019.

In an interview published on November 6, 2019, NNPG ‘co-convenor’ and ‘chairman’ of the National Socialist Council of Nagaland – Reformation (NSCN-R), W. Wangtin Naga, had disclosed that each of the Naga groups in Assam, Arunachal Pradesh and Manipur would be governed by Territorial Councils. Wangtin Naga’s interview confirms earlier reports of submissions made by the Government’s interlocutor for Naga talks before the Parliamentary Standing Committee in 2018. The Interlocutor, R. N. Ravi, when questioned about the status of the framework agreement, had informed the members of the Committee that a "special status" would be offered to the Naga people by extending Article 371 (A) to Naga-inhabited areas.

Auch arrangements have never been acceptable to Valley based political and civil society groups.

Indeed, the Coordinating Committee on Manipur Integrity (COCOMI), an apex body of five civil society groups formed to protect the 'territorial integrity' of the State, urged the people to launch various campaigns near the houses of the 60 Members of Legislative Assembly (MLAs) and four Members of Parliament (MPs). The Coordinator of COCOMI, Sunil Karam stated, on November 7, 2019,

Though the Chief Minister N. Biren had assured the leaders of the civil organisations to summon an emergency session of the Manipur Assembly it is now clear that there will be no session to take a resolution on the Naga agreement. On the other hand, Biren says he will be first to resign or to sacrifice his life if Manipur's interest and territory are compromised. However, some leaders point out that it will be immaterial if Biren resigns or takes the extreme step once the Naga agreement is inked.

Earlier, on November 2, 2019, COCOMI Coordinator Karam had stated,

People have been kept in the dark about the points discussed during negotiations. We have asked the state and the Centre to disclose by November 4 the details of the framework agreement signed by the NSCN-IM [National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Isak Muivah] and the government.

COCOMI, formed on October 21, 2019, consists of All Manipur United Clubs’ Organisation (AMUCO), Committee of Civil Societies in Kangleipak (CCSK), Ethno Heritage Council (HERICOUN), League of Indigenous Peoples’ Upliftment (LIPUL) and United Committee Manipur (UCM).

COCOMI has intensified agitations since its formation. On October 25, 2019, as part of a "public alert movements" progamme by COCOMI, hundreds of women participated in torch rallies to reaffirm their stand on territorial integrity, in various locations across the Imphal city, shouting slogans like 'Long Live Manipur' and 'Condemn communal politics by India'. 

On October 30, 2019, normal life in the State, and especially the Valley Districts, was affected due to a 20-hour cease work protest launched by COCOMI, called to highlight the need to safeguard the State’s interests and territory amid reports of the finalisation of the Naga peace talks with the Centre. The Cease Work protest was later extended till 6pm on November 1.

Since November 1, 2019, COCOMI has launched agitations in the form of ‘’Public alert rally’’ and ‘alert sit-in’ protests against the imminent agreement between Naga groups and the Government of India (GoI).

Previously, UCM, the main civil group behind the 2001 violent protests in response to the extension of the Ceasefire agreement “without territorial limits”, and one of the main constituents of COCOMI, had on October 1, 2019, held a meeting with all political parties actively present in the State, and adopted the following three resolutions:

The Framework Agreement on the possible final settlement of the Naga Peace accord shall not disturb and infringe upon the unity and traditional integrity of Manipur under any conditions. Even if the Government of India confirms that the geographical boundary of the northeastern states will remain intact, anything which subsequently relates to the ongoing framework agreement cannot be taken up inside Manipur without the prior sanction and approval of the State Government and the people of Manipur. Any steps that might be taken up by Government of India which directly or indirectly seemed to endorse the long-standing demand of the NSCN-IM of integrating the Naga inhabited areas, such as Pan-Naga or cultural provincial-territorial councils, or any arrangement relating to financial or ethnic-based administrative arrangements or any similar structural formation, is not acceptable to the people of Manipur.

Further, on October 30, 2019, the Thadou Inpi, apex body of the Thadou, the largest community within the Kuki ethnic group, met the Interlocutor for talks with Kuki armed groups, A.B. Mathur, and asked the Central Government to conclude the ‘Indo-Kuki’ talks alongside the ‘Indo-Naga’ peace process. They also opposed any move to take their land for a final settlement with the Nagas.

Meanwhile, two Improvised Explosive Device (IED) explosions were reported in the State.

On November 5, 2019, five Policemen and one civilian were severely injured in an IED explosion at Khoyathong Road near Sani Mandir in the Thangal Bazar area of Imphal West District. The blast occurred at around 9:30 am when the market was abuzz with traffic and office goers.

Earlier on November 2, three Border Security Force (BSF) personnel were injured in an IED explosion at Telipati in Imphal East District. The wounded personnel were identified as Lalkumar, Koram Mahindra and Santram.

No militant group has so far claimed responsibility for these attacks, but the role of Valley-based groups is suspected. Significantly, both of these incidents, happening within a few days, occurred at a time when there was increased apprehension amongst non-Naga communities residing in the State – mainly the dominant Meitei who primarily inhabit the Valley Districts and Kukis residing in the Hills – after ‘successful’ rounds of peace talks between the GoI and Naga Groups on October 31, 2019. Meitei militant groups are likely to attempt to demonstrate their presence in a situation where there is a palpable sign of unrest, in order to regain lost space. According to partial data collected by South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), nine fatalities (four civilians and five militants) in seven incidents have been recorded from January 1, 2019, till November 8, 2019, as against 19 fatalities (six civilians; seven SF personnel and six militants] in 17 incidents in the corresponding period, in Manipur.  

Meanwhile, the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA), in a statement issued on November 1, 2019, sought to assuage fears in Manipur,

...rumours and misinformation are being spread in a section of media and on social media about the final Naga settlement and it is creating anxiety and concern in some parts of the country… before any settlement is arrived at with Naga groups, all stakeholders including States of Assam, Manipur and Arunachal Pradesh will be duly consulted and their concerns will be taken into consideration.

Nevertheless, with the prevailing situation in mind, security reinforcements have arrived in Manipur.  Additional numbers of Central Armed Police Force (CAPF) personnel were deployed at important areas to check any "unwanted activities". An unnamed top Government official disclosed, "Fifteen new companies of paramilitary forces have been deployed in the State to meet eventualities. Some that have reached are currently stationed at three colleges in Imphal. Over the past few days, Army troops have also arrived here in AN-32 aircraft."

The sensitivities of this multiethnic State will have to be taken into consideration when GoI arrives at a final solution with both Naga and Kuki militant groups, so that delicate inter-ethnic ties are not disrupted, and all stake holders are taken into confidence. Ethnic tensions and violence could reignite the subdued militancy, providing motive and men to renew the fight.