South Asia Terrorism Portal

India: Meghalaya: Risking the Gains
M.A. Athul
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

An improvised explosive device (IED), weighing approximately seven kilograms, planted inside the premises of an under-construction coke plant at Bther village in East Jaintia Hills District, was recovered by Police on January 16, 2020. The next day, Sainkupar Nongtraw, the ‘general secretary’ of the indigenous insurgent outfit, Hynniewtrep National Liberation Council (HNLC), stated,

A writ petition against setting up of the plant in the area had been filed by Dame Wanhi Rymbai and others in the Meghalaya High Court. Vide an order on December 22, 2019, the Court had stayed the setting up of the coke plant. However, on January 15, 2020, the Court vacated the stay order and disposed of the matter.

Earlier, on May 17, 2019, Nongtraw had threatened Punjabi settlers of Harijan Colony in East Khasi Hill District stating,

Significantly, in 2018, an ethnic clash had occurred between the Punjabi settlers and indigenous Khasis at Shillong in East Khasi Hills District which had resulted in injuries to 100 Security Force (SF) personnel and 40 civilians.

On May 12, 2019, HNLC militants shot dead a civilian, identified as Romeo Lyngdoh, at Lapalang village in East Khasi Hills District. HNLC claimed that he was a ‘police informer’. The last civilian fatality linked to HNLC was back in December 23, 2009, when a trader was shot dead at Pomshutia village in East Khasi Hills District.

The other indigenous outfit in the State, the Garo National Liberation Army (GNLA), failed to carry out a single violent incident through 2019. The last GNLA-inflicted fatality occurred on February 18, 2018, when four people were killed in an IED explosion in the Samanda area of East Garo Hills District.

Unsurprisingly, the trend of declining insurgency-linked fatalities established in the State since 2015 continued through 2019 as well. In 2014, there were 77 fatalities (19 civilians, five SF personnel, and 53 militants), which came down to 61 (19 civilians, eight SF personnel, and 34 militants) in 2015; dropped further to 30 (12 civilians, one SF trooper, and 17 militants) in 2016; to eight (two civilians and six militants) in 2017; and seven (two civilians, two SF personnel, and two militants) in 2018. In 2019, only one fatality (mentioned above) was recorded, the lowest ever in a year since 1992. The previous low of five fatalities was recorded in 2009.

The reason for the steep decline in insurgency-related fatalities in Meghalaya since 2015 is the success of the four phase Operation Hill Storm launched by the SFs in September 2014. The operation, which primarily targeted the GNLA, the then most lethal active group in the State, resulted in the decimation of the outfit. Since September 11, 2014, at least 37 GNLA militants were killed, 154 arrested and 176 surrendered (data till January 24, 2020). Those killed included the ‘commander-in-chief’, Sohan D. Shira (February 24, 2018); ‘deputy commander’, Matchallang Sangma aka Vietnam (January 11, 2018). The GNLA ‘second-in-command’, Baichung aka Nikam Ch Momin, surrendered on December 9, 2016. Earlier on May 9, 2016, 14 GNLA militants, including ‘finance secretary’ Belding Marak, surrendered in capital Shillong in the East Khasi Hills District. The last phase of the operation was launched in September 2016.

Though HNLC has made feeble attempts to make its presence felt in the State since, as is evident from recent incidents, there is no denying that the outfit has weakened considerably. According to latest available estimates, the outfit has a strength of no more than 16 cadres, who were all based in neighbouring Bangladesh. HNLC had a cadre strength of 200 in 2003.

Indeed, on December 1, 2019, HNLC had stated that it was ready for peace talks within the ambit of the Constitution of India. HNLC ‘general secretary’ Sainkupar Nongtraw had stated,

Meghalaya Chief Minister (CM) Conrad Sangma in response to the HNLC overture, had stated on December 5,

But it will be unwise to assume that these outfits no longer constitute a threat and that they have given up their ‘movement’. Interestingly, in the same statement made of December 1, 2019, HNLC ‘general secretary’ Nongtraw also asserted,

Moreover, Border Security Force (BSF) intelligence confirmed that GNLA was attempting to renew its activities. On October 13, 2019, GNLA ‘commander’ Nikrak M. Sangma was arrested from Rongara in South Garo Hills District. Police stated that he had crossed over to India from Bangladesh, and was arrested while he was returning to Bangladesh. Police added that he was coordinating with the Untied Liberation Front of Asom-Independent (ULFA-I) and criminal elements in Bangladesh to revive the outfit.

Ex-GNLA militants also continue to be a persistent law and order issue for the State, with the surrendered militants engaging in extortion and abduction. On August 7, 2019, three individuals were arrested for abducting a school Principal from Tura in West Garo Hills. The three were part of A’chik Holistic Awakening Movement (AHAM) formed by Champion Sangma, the former ‘chairman’ of GNLA. Ex-GNLA militants are members of AHAM, formed as a Non-Governmental Organisation (NGO) in November 2018.

In the meantime, the opposition to the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA), 2019, transformed the environment in Meghalaya, as in other parts of the Northeast, and has the potential to motivate these many militant outfits to regroup and restore their strength. In the aftermath of the Government of India (GoI) passage of CAA, Meghalaya witnessed a series of massive protests and violence. The troubles are far from over: on January 22, 2020, an anti-CAA protest was held in Tura in West Garo Hills District during which the protesters demanded implementation of Inner Line Permit System (ILP) system in the State; on January 19, 2020, the Khasi Students Union (KSU) held a protest against CAA at Smit in the East Khasi Hills District.

Unsettled by these developments, the Meghalaya State Assembly on December 19, 2019, proposed to make necessary amendments to the Bengal Frontier Resolution, 1873, so that Meghalaya could be brought into the ambit of the ILP system, which regulates all visits by Indian citizens from other states. Despite the Meghalaya Assembly proposal to amend the 1873 resolution, the authority to implement the ILP system lies with GoI. The ILP system is currently not operational for Meghalaya, though Union Home Minister Amit Shah has informed the Meghalaya Chief Minister that discussions over ILP could only be held after Republic Day (January 26).

Meghalaya has experienced a substantial consolidation of peace over the past few years. However, the introduction of CAA has the potential to strengthen ethnic identity movements throughout the Northeast, and Meghalaya is no exception. Meanwhile, Meghalaya is still outside the ambit of ILP and is yet to get an assurance from the Government of India that it would be brought under ILP. Ethnic insurgent groups, prominently including GNLA and HNLC, while they have been decimated, still retain demonstrated capacities of executing isolated acts of violence. Nevertheless, there is no way to predict the advantages that may accrue to militant groups that seek to take advantage of the identity polarisation following CAA, to mobilize fresh cadres and push the State back towards turmoil.

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa: Partial Recovery
Tushar Ranjan Mohanty
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

On January 21, 2020, a Policeman was killed and two others injured in two separate bomb blasts in Dara area of Salarzai tehsil (revenue unit) in Bajaur District of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP). A bomb targeting a search team of Police exploded in Dara area killing one Policeman Waqifullah. The second blast also took place, at same distance, in the same locality in which two Policemen were injured.

On January 21, 2020, Security Force (SF) personnel shot dead a terrorist during a search operation in Kulachi tehsil (revenue unit) area of Dera Ismail Khan District in KP. Four hand grenades and one rifle were recovered from the possession of the slain militant.

On January 14, 2020, unidentified assailants shot dead an Afghan refugee residing in the Gohati refugee camp, at Swabi (Swabi District) of KP. Kago Khan, the father of the deceased, disclosed that his son Ali Khan was on way home in a car when two motorcyclists shot him dead at the Badri Bridge.

On January 8, 2020, one Frontier Corps (FC) soldier was killed in a firing incident in Azadkhel Bittani Haramatala locality under Serai Gambila Police Station in Lakki Marwat District in KP. Police said FC soldier Shakirullah had left the village to reach his duty station in Shab Qadar when unidentified assailants intercepted him and shot him dead.

According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), KP has accounted for at least four terrorism-related fatalities (all mentioned above) in 2020 thus far (data till January 26, 2020). During the corresponding period of 2019, the Province recorded five terrorism-related fatalities (all terrorists).

Through 2019, KP recorded a total of 130 fatalities (30 civilians, 69 Security Force, SF, personnel, and 31 terrorists) as against 169 such fatalities (81 civilians, 52 SF personnel, and 34 terrorists) registered in 2018. The trend of declining fatalities established since 2014 has thus been maintained through 2019.

The number suicide attacks decreased drastically from five in 2018 to just one in 2019 resulting in an 88.88 per cent decline in fatalities, from 72 in 2018 to just eight in 2019.

However, the number of overall terrorism related incidents in KP rose to 105 in 2019, as against 73 in 2018. The number of major attacks also increased from 12 in 2018 to 18 in 2019, though the resultant causalities declined from 113 to 48. The most prominent attack in 2019 was on July 21, when 10 people, including three civilians, six Policemen and one terrorist, were killed in two back-to-back attacks in Dera Ismail Khan (DI Khan) city. Another 30 persons were injured in the incidents. The Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) ‘spokesperson’ Muhammad Khorasani issued a statement claiming that the attack was carried out in retaliation for the killing of a suspected terrorist by the Counter-Terrorism Department (CTD) in DI Khan on June 23.

KP also accounted for a greater number of IED attacks in 2019, with 32 incidents in comparison to 25 in 2018. IEDs pose a particularly serious threat in KP Districts and the erstwhile Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). When the Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) started returning to their homes in 2017 after a series of military operations in the tribal areas of KP and erstwhile FATA, they found their villages and areas surrounding their homes littered with deadly landmines.

Further, the terrorists manage to escape into neighbouring Afghanistan, taking advantage of the porous border, under pressure from a series of SF operations. They are now attacking border posts in order to penetrate to their old bases once again. According to partial data compiled by SATP, since September 15, 2013, when the first cross border attack was orchestrated by terrorists, there have been at least 73 such attacks in Pakistan from across the border, in which at least 148 militants, 81 Pakistani SF personnel and 12 civilians have been killed (data till January 26, 2020). While nine incidents, resulting in 23 deaths (21 SF personnel and two terrorists), were reported in 2019, there were nine incidents in 2018 (34 fatalities: 21 terrorists and 13 SF personnel), 17 in 2017 (56 fatalities: 38 terrorists and 18 SF personnel), 15 in 2016 (49 fatalities: 39 terrorists and six SF personnel and four civilian), six in 2015 (seven fatalities: all SF personnel), 12 in 2014 (61 fatalities: 48 terrorists and 13 SF personnel) and five in 2013 (11 fatalities: eight civilians and three SF personnel).

Moreover, the Aman Lashkar (Peace Committee) members and tribal elders who had supported the Government in its fight against domestically oriented terror formations, are facing increasing threats. There was a spike in attacks against Aman Lashkar members and leaders, and in resultant fatalities, in 2018, after a noticeable decline observed in 2016 and 2017, in comparison to previous years. There was no respite from such violence in 2019 as well. According to the SATP data base, there were five such attacks resulting in six deaths in 2019, six fatalities in four incidents in 2018; two tribal elders were killed in three incidents in 2017; two such deaths were recorded in two incidents in 2016; and 14 killings in 11 such incidents in 2015.

Irfan ud Din, Security Analyst for Pakistan & Afghanistan at the FATA Research Centre (FRC), argued that military operations against militant groups in KP and Tribal Districts had considerably weakened the operational capacities of militant organisations: “Instead of suicide attacks, militants are now largely relying on cross-border attacks, target killing and IED attacks, to remain in the limelight in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.”

The FRC, meanwhile, in a report released on January 15, 2020, disclosed that it had recorded 160 violent incidents, including 106 terrorist attacks, during 2019; while there were 264 such incidents including 127 terrorist attacks in 2018, a decline of 16 per cent in acts of terror. A further breakdown showed that, of the total of 106 terrorist incidents in 2019, 54 attacks (50.94 percent) targeted SFs while 48 (45.28 per cent) were directed against civilians. Four terrorist attacks (3.77 percent) targeted members of civil militia or Aman Lashkar.

On the other hand, Pakistani SFs, as a part of the ongoing military operation Radd-ul-Fasaad (Elimination of Discord), launched on February 22, 2017, conducted 54 intelligence-based operations (IBOs) through 2019. However, a majority of these IBOs were reactive in nature, as they were conducted after a terrorist incident. There were 137 such IBOs in 2018. Though IBOs were conducted in all the tribal districts of KP, North Waziristan, South Waziristan, and Bajaur remained the prime focus of these operations.

According to the SATP database, out of 34 Districts of KP, 20 Districts were more or less affected by militancy in 2019, as against 18 in 2018. The most violent District was North Waziristan with 22 incidents of fatalities, accounting for 50 deaths in 2019, as against 49 fatalities in eight incidents in 2018. North Waziristan shares borders with Bannu, Tank, Dera Ismail Khan and Kurram Districts of KP in the North and Northeast; Sherani and Musakhel Districts of Balochistan to the south; and Khost, Paktia, and Paktika Provinces of Afghanistan to the west and north-west. Its strategically central and vulnerable location gives North Waziristan tremendous importance for the militants.

After North Waziristan, the second most affected District of the Province in 2019 was Dera Ismail Khan with 30 fatalities from 12 incidents while the number in 2018 was 10 fatalities in four incidents. With a population of more than 1.6 million people, Dera Ismail Khan has long been a centre of terrorist activities due to its strategic location. It shares borders with South Waziristan, Tank and Lakki Marwat Districts in KP; Mianwali, Bhakkar and Dera Ghazi khan Districts in Punjab, and the Zhob District of Balochistan. Two of these adjacent Districts, South Waziristan and Zhob, share borders with Afghanistan. Dera Ismail Khan has served as a transit point for militants operating in these areas. Bali Khiara, associated with TTP has been active in the Dera Ismail Khan District and adjacent areas bordering Punjab. The group led by Bali Khiara carried out 28 terrorist attacks in 2018 and another 14 in 2019. Though, Police killed 21 cadres of the Bali Khiara group in Dera Ismail Khan District during 2019, Khiara remains at large. Two main factions of the TTP – one led by Mufti Noor Wali Mehsud and the other led by Hakimullah Mehsud – remained the major actors in the instability of 2019.

Despite making tremendous gains in its fight against domestically oriented terror groups across Pakistan, and more particularly in KP, Islamabad’s attempts to restore normalcy remain far from complete success. The reason is simple and well known: Islamabad’s liking for other terrorist formations – the purported ‘good terrorists’ that Islamabad and Rawalpindi favour and support – remain intact, and their cadres are often undistinguishable from the ‘bad terrorists’ the state seeks to eliminate.

AFGHANISTAN

Afghanistan remains one of the top 10 corrupt countries in the world, says Transparency International Report: militant groups surrendered and laid down 177 arms, responding to a government’s peace initiative which will ensure their rehabilitation under government schemes. The surrender ceremony was conducted in Guwahati in Kamrup Metropolitan District of Assam. The Khaama Press, January 24, 2020.

US-Taliban talks advance, Afghanistan Government insists on ceasefire; says Taliban’s spokesman Suhain Shaheen: Taliban’s spokesman Suhain Shaheen told Arab News in a phone conversation on January 21 that Taliban representatives are holding talks with United States (US) negotiators in Qatar to create a “safe atmosphere” for the signing of a peace agreement. “There had been no discussion on cease-fire since the beginning, but the US proposed reduction in violence and our stance is to provide a safe atmosphere during the days of the agreement,” Shaheed said. Tolo News, January 24, 2020.

BANGLADESH

Prime Minister reiterates determination to advance country further by freeing from terrorism, militancy and corruption: Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina at a gala luncheon hosted on the occasion of the winter exercise of Bangladesh Army on January 23 reiterated her determination to advance the country further by freeing it from terrorism, militancy and corruption. She said "We want to take the country forward more and free it from the hands of terrorism, militancy and graft. We are working towards to achieve this goal." Dhaka Tribune, January 24, 2020.

INDIA

644 militants from eight militant groups surrender in Assam: Militants numbering 644 from eight militant groups surrendered and laid down 177 arms, responding to a government’s peace initiative which will ensure their rehabilitation under government schemes. The surrender ceremony was conducted in Guwahati in Kamrup Metropolitan District of Assam. The Telegraph, January 25, 2020.

Naga negotiations complete, states UMHA: Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA) stated that negotiation between the Naga rebel groups and the Government is complete and only the accord is left to be signed. Sources said that as part of the agreement reached between the Government and the rebel groups, two autonomous councils would be set up in the Naga inhabited areas of Arunachal Pradesh and Manipur under the provisions of the Sixth Schedule of the Constitution of India. The Assam Tribune, January 21, 2020.

1,118 persons arrested by BSF along Indo-Bangladesh border, states NCRB: According to National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB) report, 1,118 persons, including 622 males, 358 women and 138 children, were apprehended by the Border Security Force (BSF) while crossing over to India from Bangladesh in 2018. In 2017, 871 Bangladeshi nationals, including 603 men, 224 women and 44 children were arrested. The Telegraph, January 21, 2020.

Outflow of illegal migrants over the past month, states BSF IG: Border Security Force (BSF) on January 23 stated that there was a substantial increase in the outflow of illegal Bangladeshi migrants to their home country over the past month. BSF Inspector General (South Bengal Frontier) YB Khurania stated, “There has been substantial increase in outflow of illegal Bangladeshi migrants to the bordering country in last one month. In January alone, we apprehended 268 illegal Bangladeshi migrants, most of who were trying to sneak into the neighbouring country”. The Assam Tribune, January 25, 2020.

‘De-radicalisation camps in Kashmir a good sign, says J&K DGP Dilbag Singh: Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) Director General of Police (DGP) Dilbag Singh on January 20 endorsed the views of Chief of Defence Staff (CDS) General Bipin Rawat on setting up de-radicalisation camps in Kashmir Valley in J&K in India. The DGP said it would be a “good sign”, and that moves to de-radicalise youth should be welcomed. The Print, January 21, 2020.

PAKISTAN

Pakistan still shelters Haqqani network, says Afghanistan President Ashraf Ghani: Afghanistan President Ashraf Ghani said on January 23 that Pakistan continues to give sanctuary to an insurgent group that helps the Taliban in its war against Kabul and the United States, directly contradicting an earlier statement by Prime Minister Imran Khan. On January 22, Prime Minister Imran Khan had told reporters at the annual World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, that the Haqqani network, which the United States has designated as a terrorist group, has no activities or bases in Pakistan. “And you believed him?” Ghani, also at Davos, asked on January 23. Daily Times, January 24, 2020.

SRI LANKA

President admits thousands of people missing since end of civil war are "dead": For the first time, President Gotabaya Rajapaksa during a meeting with United Nations (UN) Resident Coordinator Hanaa Singer at the Presidential Secretariat in Colombo on January 17 admitted that thousands of people missing since the end of the brutal civil war between the Government and the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) rebels over a decade ago are "dead". He told that after the necessary investigations are completed steps would be taken to issue death certificates to these missing persons. The Times of India, January 22, 2020.